Is the UK’s Net Zero 2050 Policy Doomed to Fail?.
Article by Dr Neil Cutland, Special Projects Director, Sava Technology
In April 2025, it was hard to miss the headlines following comments from former Prime Minister, Sir Tony Blair. The media led with:
- “Net Zero is doomed to fail, warns Tony Blair” – The Times
- “Net Zero is doomed, Blair tells Starmer” – The Independent
- “Tony Blair at war with Ed Miliband over Net Zero plans” – The Daily Telegraph
But what did he actually say?
The Context
Blair’s comments came as his think-tank, the Tony Blair Institute for Global Change, released a report entitled: ‘The Climate Paradox: Why We Need to Reset Action on Climate Change’. The Institute is a non-profit organisation that advises governments around the world on strategy, policy, and the use of technology. In 2024, it had revenues of $140 million, employed 1,000 people, and worked with 40 governments.
The report starts by laying out a few uncomfortable global realities:
- Despite China leading an explosion in renewable energy and electric vehicles, its fossil fuel use is still rising. In 2024 alone, it began building 95 gigawatts of new coal power — nearly equal to the total coal capacity of the whole of Europe.
- India has hit a record 1 billion tonnes of coal production in a year.
- Air travel is expected to double in the next 20 years.
- Urbanisation will increase global demand for steel and cement by 40–50% by 2050.
- Africa’s population will double in the next 30 years.
Given those trends, Blair argues in the report’s foreword that “any strategy based on either phasing out fossil fuels in the short term or limiting consumption is a strategy doomed to fail.”
In other words, he wasn’t saying that Net Zero itself is doomed — only that our current approach to achieving it won’t work. The British media mis-reported this accordingly.
Rethinking the Debate
Blair believes that the current climate debate is “broken,” which has left space for populists who exploit public scepticism. As a result, many people now see Net Zero policies as unaffordable, ineffective or politically toxic.
To rebuild trust, Blair says, we need a political strategy that wins and ends the Net Zero culture war. To rebuild public trust in climate policy, politicians need to start with showing the public that they are listening – and delivering. His key message: take the debate out of the hands of campaigners and put it in the hands of policymakers. Move away from the continued sounding of the alarm, and shift to pragmatic delivery of solutions.
Seven Priorities for a Realistic Climate Strategy
The Tony Blair Institute proposes seven major areas for action:
- Accelerate and scale-up technologies that capture carbon
Invest in carbon capture and storage (CCS), both capturing emissions at source and removing carbon directly from the air. Grow these technologies rapidly and globally. - Harness the power of technology, including AI
Deploy AI-enhanced smart energy grids, and develop new materials that support energy efficiency. Use smart technology to lower bills, improve systems, and speed up progress. - Invest in breakthrough and frontier energy solutions
Ensure that all new energy generation is zero-emission. Include a new generation of small modular nuclear reactors and, in time, fusion energy. “Scaling clean energy means less pollution, more jobs and abundant energy sources that don’t fuel the climate crisis”. - Scale up nature-based solutions
Plant new forests, and develop carbon-sequestering crops. Forests, wetlands and smart farms can absorb carbon and protect food systems, as well as buying the planet time while we deploy new engineered solutions. “Nature is one of our best allies in this fight, and we need to back it with smart science and innovation”. - Adapt to what is coming
Prioritise adaptation efforts. Invest in resilience against current and future climate impacts, eg. by building flood defences and green cities. Consider global as well as domestic resilience and security. - Simplify global efforts to deliver collective action
The United Nations’ COP process has achieved some global consensus, but moves far too slowly. We now need targeted, high-impact agreements that drive real change where it matters most — especially involving China and India. Such plurilateral trade and climate policies can be aligned for mutual economic benefit. - Rethink finance and philanthropy
Money must flow to where it can make the most difference, eg. green bonds and the proper pricing of climate risk. Philanthropic giving can push frontier solutions over the finishing line (for example the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation’s funding of technological solutions that will bring safe, affordable sanitation to the 2.5 billion people worldwide estimated to be without it). “If we want a green future, we need to make the money work towards solutions”.
The Bottom Line
The report concludes that “we need to create momentum for innovative solutions, not get stuck in the past, and we need to go further and faster. By embracing disruption and prioritising impact over rhetoric, we can still halt global warming and secure a liveable future”.
About the Author
Dr Neil Cutland has spent his career advising public and private sector clients on energy efficiency — from national policy to on-the-ground delivery. In his spare time, he enjoys skiing, playing the electric guitar and driving classic sports cars (with more enthusiasm than skill in every case).
Reference
https://institute.global/insights/climate-and-energy/the-climate-paradox-why-we-need-to-reset-action-on-climate-change